One of my most humbling experiences was doing a guided tour of Cambridge (UK). In the shadow of Trinity College, the guide talked about WL Bragg, who in 1915 was the youngest person to receive the Nobel Prize for physics. As a first year research student, he came up with the equation that facilitated the development of X-Ray Crystalography. This achievement firmly put in place my attempt to add to the knowledge of mankind – researching the enzymes of ammonia assimilation in the plant pathogenic bacteria, Erwinia.

Nontheless, the knowledge I gleaned of the research process during my PhD studies gave me the foundation for a decent career in industry. Additionally, this tool box has also allowed me to maneuver my way through the 21st century, internet fueled plague of fake news, conspiracy theories and bare faced lies. This benefit was certainly not envisaged back in the day when I attempted to penetrate the innermost secrets of carrot rotting bacteria!

The scientific process is basically common sense:

• Identify a problem/issue
• do an information search around the subject
• postulate ideas, develop a theorem, plan experiments
• analyse and validate
• cross reference with other data sources
• reach a conclusion
• share it with experts in the field to allow scrutiny- be open to feedback
• share it with the world to add to the knowledge of mankind

There have been some notable false claims in history that have been disproven by in depth research and analysis

• the earth is flat
• the moon is made of green cheese
• people suffering from leprosy are being punished for heresy
• tobacco use has no impact on human health
• it is possible to continuously outperform the financial markets ( Ponzi ..)

In today’s world we are continuously fed information of a dubious nature; the notion of alternative facts and truths have entered our consciousness; baseless big bold opinions, if repeated often enough, are deemed to be facts ; independent sources of verification seem to be becoming less independent and more tribal.

Many controversial claims are often so spurious that they do not impact our lives; some can impact us indirectly; whilst a small number can affect us personally. So how can we work our way through this minefield to allow us to come to the right conclusion for ourselves? An example.

In a post Covid world, the validity of vaccination has been questioned. The history of vaccines extends over 100 years with the minimization or eradication of some significant illnesses – smallpox, polio,TB, whooping cough, rubella to name but a few. Yet many people, including some of our extended family members, are choosing not to vaccinate- when asked why – the answer is unclear but there is an element of a) noise on the internet about bad things happening b) a friend says…….

On the basis that no one else can make the decision for you, or your children, and that the subject of vaccination is not trivial – how to proceed?

• discern how important the issue is to you, this gives a sense of how much effort should be applied
• take input from multiple sources, for and against – have these sources been consistent in their viewpoint?
• how credible are those sources – an expert in the field? Individual/ organization on a mission?
• are any of the sources independent, without a vested interest?
• is there information to support any assertions made? Get comfortable with data, statistics. Discern between facts and opinions.
• does any assertion made seem plausible, pass the sniff test?
• if in discussion with an individual ask questions ( how did you arrive at that viewpoint ; what do the statistics conclude) to ascertain how much thought has been put into the subject.
• continue to ask questions until you are satisfied you understand both sides of the debate
• take the broad inputs and come up with your sense of the probable, possible, improbable – and make your decision

The point here is for important decisions to be yours, not some third party who may not have your best interests at heart. Take ownership of them. The above outline is just a simple version of the scientific research process that has been developed over centuries – it is also the foundation of good decision making.

This type of analyses is done regularly, not because it is particularly fascinating nor is there a desire to change others points of view. It is because the world we live in is ever increasingly complex, and when we think about important topics, we do not want our minds clouded by mumbo jumbo ; this needs to be quickly filtered out so a comfortable position on any topic can be formulated, thus helping us to live our lives in the way we wish.